Canada's Political State of Play: NDP-Conservatives Tied, Liberals Down and Out

The most pressing political question of the next two years is just how the Conservatives plan to bounce back.    After a 2011 victory over 9 points over the second-place NDP, the two national parties find themselves.  If the Conservatives don't turn the tide, Canadians may find themselves ushering in the first-ever NDP era.  Fortunately, the Conservatives have until October 19, 2015 to turn things around, not to mention near-total control over the timing of Canada's next parliamentary election (for American readers interested in learning this feature of parliamentary democracy, click and go to Section E of the helpful Library of Parliament publication).

And about the once-ruling Liberal Party?  They're still stuck in the political wilderness.

From The Hill Times:

Last May the Conservatives won a 166 seat majority with 39.6 per cent of the popular vote nationally, while the NDP won 103 seats with 30.6 per cent of the popular vote.

According to the latest averaging of national polls by aggregator ThreeHundredEight.com, the Conservatives and NDP are now statistically tied in public support, with the two parties’ polling at 33.9 and 33.6 per cent, respectively. The Liberals are a distant third, polling at 21.7 per cent.

The NDP owes its persistent support to a breakthrough in Atlantic Canada over the past year. On election day the party received 29 per cent of popular support in the region, trailing both the Conservatives and the Liberals, who received 38 and 30 per cent popular support at the ballot box, respectively.