PQ Leader/Quebec's New PM Pauline Marois: "...I wouldn't trust her to run a lemonade stand."

By Keith Edmund White

Has the PQ's much smaller-than-expected victory Tuesday ushered in the year of the PQ-CAQ?  

Thank you Yahoo!News Canada for this fantastic take on the just how long the PQ will hang onto their minority government:

Gerry Nicholls: Well, when it comes to Marois' management skills, I wouldn't trust her to run a lemonade stand. Next election will be in the Fall of 2013.

Bruce Hicks: If Marois governs judiciously, she could govern for two years before she might herself decide to go to the polls and try to get a majority. If she tries to do many things without trying to get the support of MNAs outside her party she will probably be brought down by the opposition in 12-18 months.

Gerry Nicholls and Bruce Hicks are both political scientists, and part of Yahoo!News Canada's expert panel on politics.  Conservative commentator Nicholls, self-professed as one of Canada's Top Five Political Minds, hails from Southern Ontario, and offers this fantastically written blog.

Bruce Hicks, who is now a Visiting Scholar at Carlton University, offers the more measured take on the PQ's chances.  Hicks boasts a career in political strategy, journalism, and--most relevant to boviations on Quebec politics--he was an Associate at Montreal University's Canada Research Chair in Electoral Studies (CRCES).  You can find more of his work here.

Beyond the doubts in Marois' management skills, perhaps supported by the PQ coming dangerously close to blowing a sizable lead in the polls last week, Hicks brings up a crucial point:  how is the PQ going to govern, since it will need votes from either the Liberals or right-leaning CAQ?  Well, time will tell, but the CAQ--a conservative coalition party that puts right-leaning reforms ahead of independence issues--seems ready to work with the PQ.

While the PQ and Liberals are ideologically more in sync, the ever-so slim defeat for the Liberals coupled with the CAQ's likely desire to build off their somewhat disappointing third place finish, may lead to a tepid PQ-CAQ partnership.

Note:  It would be remiss to omit a reference to the tragic shooting at the PQ's post-election celebration on Tuesday, which resulted in one death, one critical injury, and a third person's treatment for shock.

Quebec Election 2012: The Significance of a CAQ Win

by Keith Edmund White

Yes, the PQ is still leading polls.  But after a reader comment directed me to review the parties' economic platforms, two things became very clear:  (1) the conservative CAQ are definitely in contention and (2) a CAQ government in Quebec would mean big changes to the economic and spending policies coming out of Quebec City.

Quebec Party Platforms

After a reader comment on an earlier post regarding the PQ’s economic platform, I thought readers might appreciate having a few resources on policy positions of Quebec’s three leading political parties: the PQ, the Liberals, and the CAQ.

One can find these parties full platforms at CBC News. (Side-note: to get the PQ’s platform in English, check out this Google-Translate page).

And for those wanting a quick primer, Reuters offers this crib sheet of these parties’ respective economic platforms.

Political Recap: PQ Leads, but CAQ Is on the Rise

The Gazette, a leading Montreal newspaper, offers an excellent report on the dynamics of the 2012 Quebec election. The PQ leads (with around 33%), but is unpopular, and is now shifting its attacks from its Liberal opponents (who have slipped to third place) to the CAQ. Both the Liberals and PQ are polling in the high 20s, but the Liberals are slipping, while the CAQ is on the assent.

The possibility of the CAQ winning a three-way race against the PQ and Liberals is itself a historic and significant development in Quebec politics. As the discussion below of the parties respective platforms will reveal, the CAQ has the opportunity to push a drastically more conservative approach to government spending and taxing in a province where a majority of the voters favor left or center-left on economic policies. Oh, the joys of modified parliamentary systems!

The Economic Politics of Quebec: Left (PQ) vs. the Center-Left (Libs) vs. the Conservative (CAQ) 

Now while I can’t comment on previous governing records in Quebec, the Reuters report allows a few conclusions to be drawn of these parties economic plans. 

1. Balancing the Budget:  All three parties are committed to balancing the province’s budget by 2013-14. 
2. Spending:  The PQ and Liberals favor government spending, but the Liberals’ spending plans are half of those of the PQ. 
3. Taxes:  All three parties are pushing tax increases, but the CAQ’s revenue plans only increase the estate taxes of second homes.  But guess what?  This revenue goes to paying for an income tax cut.

Conclusion

PQ is pushing (by to use American standards) and pretty liberal economic plan, Liberals are pushing what could be viewed as a center-left plan, with the CAQ’s plan that would probably find a lot in common with the Republican economic platform.

And on a final note, I find myself a touch envious that when Quebec voters go to the polls next week, they'll actually know--to a surprising degree of detail--what policies they're voting for.  The U.S. 2012 election, for all the focus on the role of government in the economy, has yet to see either major party lay out any real details on government spending. 

Quebec Election 2012: The (Inward Looking?) PQ Is Back, Liberals Fall, and the Center-Right CAQ Shows Its Staying Power

By Keith Edmund White

For American political junkies bored by the Democratic and Republican conventions, I would recommend tracking Quebec’s provincial election, taking place Sept. 4. Not only is the three-way race close, a center-right party is in striking distance of taking power in Quebec for the first time in modern history.

Admittedly, after four nights of debate, a poll has the Parti Quebecois (PQ)—a party supporting Quebec sovereignty and separation from Canada) in the lead, with 33% of the vote. And this might be the lead story, since 2007 saw support for the PQ implode, and give the party its first third-place finish in decades.

But most dramatic, to me, is the tie between the Liberal Party and the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ)—a new party combining the former conservative Action Democratic Party and parts of the Parti Quebecois, standing at 27% and 28% respectively. Also, of note: the same poll found CAQ leader Francois Legault out-performed his rivals, the PQ’s Jean Pauline Marois and the Liberal’s Jean Charest.

Quebec has been governed by the Liberal Party for the last nine years, and either the Liberals or the PQ have held Quebec's parliament for the last forty years. (Side-note: anyone with a chance to visit Quebec City should really take a tour of the gorgeous parliament building and note the distinct lack of Canadian flags until you enter the near-by Parks Canada Fortifications of Quebec, a national historic site).

Most immediately, the PQ’s rise now has Quebec sovereignty issues grabbing headlines. First, the PQ has found itself twisting over its position on the timing of yet-another referendum on Quebec independence. The issue: whether only a petition of 15% of Quebec’s citizens would trigger a third referendum on independence, or if provincial parliamentary approval would be needed before a referendum took place. The significance: With only 30-40% of Quebec's citizens supporting independence, many voters see focusing on cultural or independence issues—instead of say, focusing on economic issues—not a thrilling prospect.

Second, the PQ is also facing criticism for some pro-sovereignty planks in its platforms. The PQ now wants a French language test for anyone running in provincial or municipal elections and a secularism charter that bans public servants from wearing of “conspicuous” religious symbols.

The National Post probes this inward lurch the PQ, interviewing critics and opponents of the PQ’s platform, gets at two conclusions: (1) demographic changes do show that Montreal may become minority French-speaking within two decades, a troubling development to Quebecers in favor of preserving the city’s French culture; (2) while easily characterized as intolerant, the moves do support PQ’s central goal of independence: (a) both proposals will likely be slapped down the Canadian Supreme Court, making it easy for the PQ to show Quebec doesn’t ‘fit’ into Canada’s federalism and (b) they are measures, if enacted, which could lead to next decade’s young voters pushing a independence reference over 50%.

But more interesting, to me, is the raise of the center-right CAQ. First, it is important to note, that in the 2007 provincial elections, its pre-merger Action Democratic Party finished second, taking advantage of an imploding PQ. But now, even in the face of a reinvigorated PQ party, the newly-minted CAQ is showing that center-rights politics in Quebec aren’t fading fast.

Sympathetic to Quebec’s French identity, the CAQ supports Quebec nationalism, but has promised a moratorium on independence for 10 years. In doing so, it has transformed the election from one between a left-leaning federalist party and left-leaning separatist party, but one that promises either a durable center-right opposition party, or even a possible center-right government in Quebec. In fact, the only thing that seems to be holding the CAQ from getting even more supports are doubts that the CAQ, like the PQ, will push for Quebec’s independence from Canada.

In short, this election matters. Will the PQ hang onto their lead, but then find its return to political power short-lived: with squabbling over a third referendum and court battles robbing it of public support? Will the Liberals hang on, stoking fears that a PQ and CAQ win will focus Quebec politics on independence and culture issues, at the expense of more pressing issues, like the economy and healthcare? Or will the CAQ quash doubts about its commitment to Canadian federalism, and break the left-leaning strangle hold on Quebec politics?