Staff Writer
Before becoming Prime Minister, in a speech to the conservative American think-tank Council of National Policy, Stephen Harper described Canada’s New Democratic Party (NDP), in the following way, “basically a party of liberal Democrats, but it's actually worse than that, I have to say. And forgive me jesting again, but the NDP is kind of proof that the Devil lives and interferes in the affairs of men.”[1] Since its founding in the early 1970s, this unapologetic left-leaning party Harper seems to scorn, has been an integral part of the Canadian political order. In fact, it was the NDP’s first leader Tommy Douglas who introduced universal healthcare, something that today you cannot leave out in the very first sentences describing Canada. More recently, the party was led from 2003 until this past summer by Jack Layton. Throughout his tenure, Layton passionately promoted his party’s principles while at the same time attracting more voters.[2] His savvy leadership translated to huge political gain for the NDP. In the federal election this past spring they surprised everyone. Layton was able to secure 103 seats for his party, and even oversaw a massive victory in Quebec, a place that the NDP had never even attempted to contend in.[3] Ultimately, Layton’s party leadership led to the utter collapse of one party (Bloc Quebecois) and the taking of the throne for Canada’s center-left spotlight, from the other (Liberals). But tragically, as the nation’s political scene was being reshaped by the emergence of the NDP as the Official Opposition, Layton succumbed to cancer in August. Which leads to the question: who will get behind the wheel of this reinvigorated political party? And in what direction will they steer Canada’s New Democrats?
There is no doubt Layton will be missed. Across Canada, only one-in-five think the NDP will be able to find a new leader as strong as Layton, while two thirds (66%) of Canadians disagree.[4] As of now, long-time NDP strategist Brian Topp is the sole registered leadership candidate, which will be formally decided at the party’s convention in 2012.[5] He has a stance on every Canadian hot-button issue such as advocating Canada must formally recognize Palestinian statehood, to being vehemently opposed to the Keystone XL oil pipeline project linking Alberta to the Gulf Coast.[6] Other potential candidates exist, among them Quebec MP, Thomas Muclair who gains popularity day by day. According to a poll released last week 28 percent of Canadians would vote NDP if Muclair is chosen to be the party’s leader, while 25 percent who would vote NDP if Topp is chosen.[7]
There is an important side note for any American observing the NDP leadership race. Canada has extremely tight campaign finance laws. Under the new rules, the maximum contribution an individual supporting one of these candidates can contribute is $1,200, but the NDP has instituted an internal policy that reduces this to a mere $1,000.[8] Also under Canadian law, corporations and other businesses are completely prohibited from contributing altogether. Needless to say, this is a vastly different campaign finance regulatory structure than seen in the United States.
So how will this impact the party’s effectiveness as Official Opposition? For one, it is the first time in history the NDP has held this position. So, if you combine this with the fact that they entered this Parliamentary session without real leadership, at first glance things can look somewhat unpredictable for the party. However, the NDP is now the sole voice coming from the political left in Ottawa. Given the huge blow dealt to the more centrist Liberals, (the Official Opposition for the previous five years) we can be sure that Harper’s Conservative government is going to be contested with more passion than ever before. Yet one thing to keep in mind is that any effectiveness is going to be tempered, because at the end of the day, the Conservatives have a majority government. In Canada it is only in extreme cases that an MP votes against his party. That said, any Opposition party’s role in a majority government will be more-so to stimulate public debate while waiting for the next election rather than directly affecting policy outcomes.
What could the NDP being the Official Opposition mean for US-Canada relations? Let’s be honest, the party has never been particularly friendly with the US. Expect Parliamentary debate to be reflective of this. The NDP have historically been known as the “anti-American” party extremely skeptical of American power. At one point they even called for Canada to pull out of NATO, because of their suspicion of American intentions.[9] And just this week NDP Immigration Critic (the formal Opposition “shadow” position to the Immigration Minister) MP Don Davies, called for Canada to ban former Vice President Dick Cheney from entering Canada for a scheduled speaking engagement, because of his role in the Bush administration.[10] While the Opposition’s current Foreign Affairs Critic, NDP MP Paul Dewar (another possible leadership candidate) has made clear that his party will closely examine any perimeter security cooperation between Canada and the US. [11] Alexander Moens, writing in the Fraser Institute’s most recent report on Canada-US relations, blames Canadian nationalist sentiment and specifically the NDP for creating what he terms the “political albatross” preventing progress on the Prosperity and Security agreement.[12] During Layton’s campaigning in 2011 he reiterated the NDP stance on Canada’s involvement in Afghanistan. He spoke on numerous occasions about how the party has been strongly in favor of bringing Canadian troops home since 2006 and immediately ending the military mission altogether.[13] The Conservatives on the other hand, are more in line with Obama’s plans of scaled down perseverance in Afghanistan. On every occasion the NDP has almost automatically opposed Canadian cooperation with the United States. We can anticipate that the NDP will be quick to challenge the Prime Minister on everything he decides to do regarding relations with the US. This is not only because it is the role of any Opposition to be the proverbial thorn in the governing party’s side, but also because there could not be more diametrically opposite sets of beliefs regarding Canada-US relations in Parliament.
Yet there is hope that things could gradually warm up between the Opposition Party and their stance towards the Americans. With the NDP’s new foothold in Quebec, they will now have to appeal to that province’s voters, who have historically been somewhat more supportive of Canada-US cooperation. Actually, amongst English-speaking Canadians, it is a well-known joke that when in Quebec, you will be treated more warmly if you tell them you are American rather than from another province. And from a policy standpoint they have always been Canada’s exception. One pertinent example is with regard to trade. In 1993, the NDP (and frankly most Canadians) had been staunchly against Canada’s commitment to NAFTA, but the opposition to the free-trade agreement was remarkable lower in Quebec where almost half of the population actually supported it.[14] This illustration is particularly germane to today, because the NDP under Layton’s leadership had advocated completely renegotiating the trade agreement. So might there be a chance the newly the acquired Quebecers lessen the party’s disdain towards the free trade pact? It is on key Canada-US issues like these, in which the new leader will have to balance traditional party positions with the interest of maintaining support in their newly conquered province.
Ultimately, Jack Layton’s legacy will be reflected by the strong position in which he left his party. As Official Opposition the NDP are going to be effective as determined critics of any move Harper’s Conservatives make, and at least for the meantime this critical voice should be at its loudest when it comes to Canada-US relations.
[1] Text of Stephen Harper's speech to the Council for National Policy, June 1997 http://www.cbc.ca/canadavotes2006/leadersparties/harper_speech.html
[2] Ian Austen, New York Times http://www.nytimes.com/2011/08/23/world/americas/23canada.html
[3] 2011 Federal Election Results http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/results.html
[4] Angus-Reid Poll http://www.angus-reid.com/polls/43998/canadians-remember-layton-fondly-support-state-funeral-to-honour-him/
[5] NDP Party Website http://www.ndp.ca/leadership-2012
[6] Brian Topp, Globe and Mail http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/brian-topp/
[7] Joanna Smith, Toronto Star http://www.thestar.com/news/canada/politics/article/1058971--ndp-would-do-best-under-mulcair-poll-finds?bn=1
[8] Elections Canada http://www.elections.ca/content.aspx?section=pol&document=index&dir=lim&lang=e
[9] John Ibittson, Globe and Mail http://m.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndp-foreign-defence-policy-differs-from-tories-in-style-more-than-substance/article2036769/?service=mobile
[10] Canadian Press Release, http://www.huffingtonpost.ca/2011/09/26/dick-cheney-canada-visit-ndp-ban-bar-don-davies_n_980609.html
[11] John Ibittson, http://m.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/ndp-foreign-defence-policy-differs-from-tories-in-style-more-than-substance/article2036769/?service=mobile
[12] Alexander Moans, “Skating on Thin Ice: Canadian-American Relations in 2010 and 2011” p. 26 [Google Books] http://books.google.com/books?hl=en&lr=&id=mBLlGi0kAakC
[13] NDP Party Website http://www.ndp.ca/press/canadian-leadership-in-afghanistan
[14]Guy Lapachelle, “Quebec under free trade: making public policy in North America” p. 255 [Google Books]
http://books.google.com/books?id=E40tHMkPlUkC
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