Canada's Affections: Goodbye U.S., Hello China?

by Keith Edmund White

Editor-in-Chief

Macleans reports on a recent Donner Foundation poll that finds a polarized Canadian public, split on Canada's place in the world and Canada's growing military and energy development. But the two thing most Canadian agree on: (1) they're over free trade with their southern neighbor, and (2) look to China, the EU and India as their preferred trading partners in the future.

From Macleans:

The U.S., eh?

A stunning 72 per cent of respondents agree that “American dominance peaked in the last century.” On the rise are China and Southeast Asia, in the opinion of the 64 per cent who picked them as the next decade’s economic winners. Though Canada and the U.S. are the world’s largest trading partners, Canadians favour tying trade to China, followed by the European Union and India. The U.S. is the fourth choice. Declining faith in North America’s future seems to have eroded enthusiasm for continental free trade. Support plunged from near 80 per cent a decade ago to 54 per cent today. “It’s sort of bye-bye Yankees, hello China.” said Graves. “It’s almost shocking, this kind of promiscuous break, a whiplash-like defection from our pals down south.”

But, before sounding the alarm too soon, I thought I'd share two other recent items of news.

First, in 2011, Canada exported 2.09 million barrels a day of oil to the United States (up from 1.79 million barrels a day of oil in 2007).

Second, Canada's economic performance is still closely tied to the United States, as this Reuters report on Canada's January .9 percent slide in manufacturing sales makes clear:

With most exports destined for the United States, Canada's manufacturing fortunes are closely tied to that of its neighbor.

"With economic news out of the U.S. coming in better than expected recently, we expect firmer U.S. growth to be supportive for Canada's manufacturing sector exports," Preston said.

Canada's status as one of the best performing economies in the G7 club of rich countries after the global financial crisis has faded this year while more upbeat data continues to roll in from the United States, its top trade partner.

Finally, an interesting thing to note about the poll.  Canadians appear not to favor free trade as much, but still support expanding trade relationships with other countries.  So, two questions.  First, is Canada pro-diversified trade or recoiling from free trade?  And, two, if its the former, will Canadian public attitudes really have anything to do with where Canadian businesses export their goods (as opposed to, let's say, bottom lines)?

So while there's no doubt of China's growing importance, perhaps Canadians shouldn't be so fast to bid farewell to the U.S.-Canadian economic partnership.  Though, one wonders, how much of this poll is just a snap shot of Canadian frustrations with the the Keystone XL project?  If so, it will probably pass:  Obama is going to Oklahoma this week to tour--what else but--part of the Keystone XL project.  From CBC News:

But Obama also assured Prime Minister Stephen Harper that the decision was not a reflection of the pipeline's merits, but was merely necessitated by Republican pressure tactics. He welcomed TransCanada to propose another route.

The White House says the goal of Obama's travels this week is to promote the president's multi-tiered, "all-of-the-above" approach to energy policy that involves advocating for the development of new sources of energy, domestic oil and gas production and rigorous new fuel efficiency standards.