By Keith Edmund White
Editor-in-Chief
Commentators Mixed on Impact of EU-US Free Trade Negotiations on Canada-EU Trade Talks
WSJ says "the heat is on" for Canada to wrap up their 3-year discussions with the EU, quoting international trade lawyer Lawrence Herman:
The U.S. move “puts pressure on the Canadian government to finish negotiating with the EU,” Lawrence Herman, an international trade lawyer with Cassels Brock LLP and a former diplomat, told Canada Real Time. The size of the U.S and EU markets means those talks will be “extremely important” for both sides and “Canada could be lost in the shuffle if we don’t manage to resolve the outstanding issues.”
But the Globe & Mail offers a more nuanced take, sampling from a variety of experts:
And here are two takes on the net benefits and costs of Canada prusuing the EU free-trade pact:
One study finds Manitoba alone will lose 3,800 jobs. [CTV News citing the The Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives]
"A Canada-EU joint economic study released in October 2008 shows that a trade agreement would boost Canada’s economy by $12 billion annually and increase two-way trade by 20 percent." [Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada]
WSJ says "the heat is on" for Canada to wrap up their 3-year discussions with the EU, quoting international trade lawyer Lawrence Herman:
The U.S. move “puts pressure on the Canadian government to finish negotiating with the EU,” Lawrence Herman, an international trade lawyer with Cassels Brock LLP and a former diplomat, told Canada Real Time. The size of the U.S and EU markets means those talks will be “extremely important” for both sides and “Canada could be lost in the shuffle if we don’t manage to resolve the outstanding issues.”
But the Globe & Mail offers a more nuanced take, sampling from a variety of experts:
- John Weekes, former top Canadian trade negotiator: "It puts the squeeze on us to get going and finish our deal with the EU."
- Derek Holt and Dov Zigler, Bank of Nova Scotia economists: “The promise of a new trans-Atlantic partnership between the U.S. and Europe also could impact Canada as efforts continue to complete a Canada-EU agreement..."
- David Madani, chief Canada economist at Capital Economics: "“I don’t think the Americans having talks with the EU changes anything for Canada. Canada’s talks with the EU started back in 2009. It seems fairly clear that both sides are committed to achieving some kind of trade arrangement..."
Pro & Cons of Canada-EU Free Trade Deal
And here are two takes on the net benefits and costs of Canada prusuing the EU free-trade pact:
One study finds Manitoba alone will lose 3,800 jobs. [CTV News citing the The Canadian Centre for Policy Alternatives]
"A Canada-EU joint economic study released in October 2008 shows that a trade agreement would boost Canada’s economy by $12 billion annually and increase two-way trade by 20 percent." [Foreign Affairs and International Trade Canada]
Main Take Away: Competing FTAs (and Ensuing Trade Diversion?) Are Here to Stay, Sorry WTO
With the United States, under a center-left President, plunging into trade talks with the EU and with several Asia Pacific nations to achieve a Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, it seems FTAs--and not WTO agreed to global agreements--will be leading the free trade parade.
The good news for trade liberalizers? FTAs move the ball forward.
The bad news? With reports already suggesting the US may get a better deal than Canada in their deals with the EU, this raises the specter of competing free trade agreements actually creating trade diversion. Instead of tariffs, the problem will be differing treatment under FTAs.
Now these competing trade deals could have countries consistently lower their trade barriers.
But there is an ironic alternative. 'Free' trade agreements may end up creating FTA trading blocks that re-create the trade barriers that have seen such liberalization since WWII.
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