Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label economy. Show all posts

Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Canada Losing It's Sci-Tech Advantage?

For a nation that had punched well above its weight in the sci-tech sector, the Science, Technology and Innovation Council's latest report isn't good news.

But Canada can just count on its booming natural resources sector...forever?

Highlights from Wells' column and the STIC Report that suggest Canada may be losing its sci-tech edge:
  • If it manages to push Canada up 7 spots in international rankings of research intensity, the country will be back where it was, compared to peer countries, on the day Stephen Harper became prime minister.
  • "So Canada has more scientists than ever, and each is able to do less science than she would have been able to do a decade ago."
  • "The ability to deploy our talent to best advantage—to maximize the impact of people’s knowledge and skills in our labour force and our society—is equally important...in the services sector, Canada’s performance is mediocre when compared to other OECD countries. In manufacturing, the picture is dismal—the HRST share of the manufacturing labour force is among the lowest in the OECD." (STIC Report, Chapter 7
  • "At the beginning of this century, Canadian business R&D funding stood at 1.05 percent of GDP, and it has fallen fairly steadily to 0.81 percent in 2011." (STIC Report, Chapter 3)
From Paul Wells' praiseworthy column in Maclean's:
The good news is that on pure science, Canada continues to perform better than most other countries. “With a share of only 0.5 percent of global population, Canada accounted for 4.4 percent of the world’s natural sciences and engineering publications in 2010. This positions Canada eighth after countries with significantly larger populations: the U.S., China, Germany, the United Kingdom, Japan, France and Italy.”

The bad news is that Canada is letting its science advantage fritter away, as if that could somehow help its private-sector R&D gap close. In 2007 Canada continued to rank first among G7 countries in HERD, or R&D expenditure in the higher-education sector. But as I have argued elsewhere, it’s increasingly useful to consider the G7 as an international losers’ club. It’s the U.S., Japan and Old Europe. When you throw Canada into the larger pool of 41 countries STIC looks at — countries with a bit of mojo, like Brazil, India, China, Poland, Israel and Sweden — Canada has fallen from third in 2006, to 4th in 2008 — to 9th in 2011. “With their significant investments in research and higher education,” this panel writes, “other countries are catching up and overtaking Canada.”

Between 2006 and 2010, the annual number of science PhD graduates in Canada grew by nearly half — a lagging reflection, I suspect, of the formidable growth in science capacity in Canada between 1997 and 2002. A generation of students came of age at a time when Canada was developing an international reputation as a relative science oasis. They had their university careers and came onto the job market. But it’s a shaky market now. This larger cohort of scientists is searching for stagnant or declining grant budgets. Success rates for research grant applications are falling. So Canada has more scientists than ever, and each is able to do less science than she would have been able to do a decade ago.

It’s a peculiar situation. The government has known, since its first year in office, that the private sector is not doing enough applied research. Its response has been to put the brakes on pure research in universities. The result has been that the weakness has continued to aggravate, while the strength has been put in danger. At Davos more than a year ago, Harper said his government would “continue to make the key investments in science and technology necessary to sustain a modern competitive economy.” It’s not clear what he meant by “continue.” It is true that recent changes at the National Research Council are designed to bolster, or accompany, or synergize with, or somehow prop up private-sector applied research. I can only wish the NRC luck. If it manages to push Canada up 7 spots in international rankings of research intensity, the country will be back where it was, compared to peer countries, on the day Stephen Harper became prime minister.

Thursday, April 11, 2013

Snap Summary, CUSLI Conference Panel 3 – The Great Lakes-St. Lawrence Region in the Era of Global Competition

The Canada-U.S. economic relationship is fundamentally different with the raise of new major economic powers.  And public policies, whether workforce training or deciding how much foreign State-owned industries (read: China) can buy into domestic industries.


The panel participants:

Jim Dickmeyer, U.S. Consul General in Toronto (Chair)
Renato Discenza, C Suite Leader in Private and Public Sector
Kasi V. P. Rao, Kasi Rao Consulting Inc.
P. Kelly Tompkins, Executive Vice President for Legal, Government Affairs and Sustainability, and Chief Legal Officer,  Cliffs Natural Resources and President, Cliffs China
Christopher Smille, Senior Advisor, Government Relations and Public Affairs at Building and Construction Trades Department, AFL-CIO
Douglas Porter, BMO Capital Markets

The Global and Canada-U.S. Economic State of Play:  U.S. Looking Up, Canada Down a Touch, Great Lakes is a Critical Economic Player

Douglas Porter, of BMO Capital Markets, kicked off the panel with a presentation on the state of the global economy.

CUSLI Conference 2013 -Great Lakes Region - Panel 1: Economic Tranformation and Bi-National Cooperation

The 2013 Conference is underway.  Right now focus is on the launch of the Council of the Great Lakes Region (CGLR).

CGLIR is being launched.  And a panel of six distinguished experts in different areas of the Canada - US relationship are chatting about the importance of Canada-US organizations coming together to map out strategies to maximize the Great Lakes economic potential.

David Crane's 3 Challenges for the Great Lakes Region, and Where CGLR Must Make a Difference to Be Relevant

David Crane, of the Toronto Star, in typical fashion got to the heart of the matter.  For CGLIR to succeed it most identify and then help bring together problem solvers to tackling economic challenges in the region.

He mapped out three such challenges:


Monday, November 26, 2012

Are Canada's Economic Fortunes Turning? Putting Q3 Numbers in (Some) Economic & Policy Context

By Keith Edmund White, Editor-in-Chief

iPolitics and WSJ offer an illuminating one-two punch on the Canadian economy, both--in different ways--putting Canada's not-so-thrilling economic numbers in context. The big economic question:  Is Canada's energy-heavy and (now fading) housing market boom finally weighing down Canada's phenomenal post-08 financial crisis economic performance?  Well, let's start with the snap numbers, and then review the WSJ take.  And when it comes to the policy impact of this news, particularly Canada's relationship with the United States, CBC's report on a confidential Canadian foreign policy report gives some helpful input.  So, with introductions out of the way, let's warm-up that cooling coffee with a Canadian economic web round-up!

iPolitics reports on Canadian third quarter 2012 blues, and America's economic uptick:

“Canada’s economy in the third quarter succumbed to a litany of lapses,” says CIBC World Markets economist Emanuella Enenajor, citing government austerity and weakness in trade, energy shipments, housing, and business investment. CIBC projects the quarterly economic report card Friday will reveal growth slowed dramatically to an anemic annual pace of just 0.5 per cent from 1.9 per cent in the second quarter.
On the other hand, America is enjoying what has typically been Canadian luck in the years following the 2008 financial crisis:
In contrast to Canada, the US economy is picking up steam, with Scotia Capital economists projecting growth third quarter growth there will be upwardly revised Thursday to a relatively robust 2.7 per cent annual pace from the initial 2.0 per cent estimate.
Oh, and let's not ask about the EU:
“In terms of the global third quarter growth scorecard, it looks like the US has picked up some momentum, Canada is slowing down and the European Union is in outright recession,” says Scotia Capital economist Derek Holt. 
So, should Harper be breathing a deep sigh of relief that Canada's electoral system has bought him three plus years to ride out the storm? Well, maybe.

From WSJ:

Most economists say Canada can ride out the storm. But this trade-dependent nation—far less scarred by the recession than its larger neighbor to the south—is suddenly looking vulnerable, just as a number of indicators suggest brighter days ahead for the U.S.

While the recession laid global peers low, Canada's strong bank balance sheets funded continued consumer spending during the recovery. Years of that easy credit in turn helped give rise to a housing boom that has underpinned an economy already benefiting from another surge—in commodity prices.

Today, global commodity prices are weakening, and home prices in some of Canada's hottest markets are leveling off or falling. Canadian households, meanwhile, are as leveraged as they have ever been after years of extremely low interest rates. Since September 2010, the Canadian central bank's benchmark interest rate has been at 1%.
It's no surprise then that Canadian policy makers are pushing increased trade as a way to prop up Canada's declining economic performance.  The solution: expand Canadian access to emerging markets, particularly Asia.  From last week's CBC News report showing revealing a "confidential government document" that urges Canada is expand trading opportunities, even if this means pursuing economic deals with countries "where political interests or values may not align":
A confidential government document obtained by CBC News warns the Harper government has been slow to open new markets in Asia, leaving Canada firmly tied to the troubled U.S. economy for a long time to come.

The document prepared by Foreign Affairs and dated Sept. 6 is a draft of a highly classified new "Canadian foreign policy plan" the Conservative government has been preparing for more than a year.

The draft briefing paper for the federal cabinet states: "We need to be frank with ourselves — our influence and credibility with some of these new and emerging powers is not as strong as it needs to be and could be.


"Canada's record over past decades has been to arrive late in some key emerging markets. We cannot do so in the future."

The Harper government itself took the slow road to China.
So, good news:  An American recovery could help lift Canada, both in manufacturing and likely increase in energy demand.  Downside, a slopping EU isn't going to help matters on either front, and something should be done about that housing trouble--beyond the superficially appealing solution of privatizing Canada's Housing and Mortgage Corporation

Wednesday, October 17, 2012

Border News Wednesday Round-Up

Some attention-grabbing Canada-U.S. border headlines.

Border Shooting.  Yesterday afternoon a Canada Border Services Agency officer was shot by an unidentified man at The Peace Arch crossing between Washington and British Columbia.  The shooter then took his own life, with the border agent reported in stable condition.  The border crossing, “the third busiest port of entry on the northern border[,]” has been closed since the shooting, but is slated for reopening at 4 p.m. today.  [Source:  WashingtonPost.com]

Cross-Border Crossings Would Be Twice as High if No 9/11, Report Finds.  A great two-day conference just wrapped up in Burlington, Ontario.  The TRANSLOG 2012 Conference explored border logistics, the cross-border talent pool, and border transportation issues.  One attention-grabbing tagline from the conference:  Meredith MacLeod at thespec.com reports “[i]f the 9/11 attacks hadn't happened, more than twice as many Canadians would be crossing the border to shop in the United States each year.”  Her source:  University of Windsor’s William Anderson, the first presenter at TRANSLOG 2012—an event hosted by the McMaster Institute for Transportation and Logistics (MITL) and Supply Chain and Logistics Association Canada (SCL). 

But Canadians Are Filling Up Border City Hotels.  HotelNewsNow.com reports that Canadians who shop in the U.S. are filling up U.S. hotels.  One interesting wrinkle to the story: Canadian shoppers who spend 24 hours or more get to bring back to Canada up to $200 in goods without a Canadian duty or taxed imposed.  If a Canadian shopper ups his or her U.S. visit to 48 hours or more, that duty/tax free credit goes up to $800.  (Note:  Both amounts are in Canadian dollars, naturally.)

The Coming North American Union? Beyond the Border Regulatory Gears Are Turning.  Lamenting America’s loss of sovereignty, Dana Gabriel—for Dissident Voicedoes write on some interesting developments in the Dec. 2011 Beyond the Border Initiative:  (1) The Transportation Security Administration’s extension of TSA Pre, an expedited screening initiative at 27 U.S. airports; (2) the United States Department of Agriculture has launched a pilot program for a pre-clearance screening process for Canadian fresh meat; and (3) greater cooperation between Canada and the United States when it comes to ship inspections on the St. Lawrence River.   The impact: while some have criticized the slow-moving Beyond the Border Initiative, it’s clear that U.S. officials are beginning to streamline regulatory hurdles on the U.S.-Canada border.  I wonder how many of Gabriel’s updates came courtesy of Woodrow Wilson Canada Institute’s Beyond the Border Observer: which blogs today on the United States Coast Guard and Transport Canada launching a pilot program for the joint inspection of certain ships in the St. Lawrence Seaway.

Thursday, October 11, 2012

Should the U.S. Consider Emulating Canada’s Less Harsh Treatment of Student Loan Debt in Consumer Bankruptcy Cases?


By Justin McNeil, Senior Editor

CC-BY-SA 2009 Sagie/n0nick, http://www.flickr.com/photos/n0thing/3775488150/
Concerns over the total student loan debt in the United States, which recently hit the $1 trillion mark, continue to grow amidst projections that this is the next bubble to burst in the U.S. economy, possibly derailing a still weak recovery from the 2008 financial crisis.  But Ben Bernanke, the U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman, sees no such problems with student loans.  He points to the U.S. government’s ownership of nearly 85 percent of those loans, with the remaining 15 percent belonging to private lenders, as proof of their future stability. 

Unfortunately, Bernanke may be underestimating the dangers of having an economy with $1 trillion in student loan debt and unable to provide opportunities to graduates for full-time work.  Tie this to ballooning tuition costs and a U.S. legal system that makes it incredibly onerous for students to discharge their debt, and suddenly America’s student loan system changes from one offering a “ladder of opportunity” to one promising long-term financial dead weight.  This not only harms today’s graduates, it also puts America’s future economic growth at risk.   

Part of dealing with (or better yet preventing) a student loan bubble burst is to have a workable and fair approach to discharging student loans in bankruptcy.  Yes, this is a large, multifaceted topic, and this post will not delve deeply into the legal theories behind bankruptcy or why we treat educational debt differently than others.  But U.S. policy makers have an obvious starting point: Canada’s far more balanced legal approach to addressing the discharge of education debt in bankruptcy.

The American Approach

In the U.S., the current bankruptcy laws are very clear when it comes to student loan debt: there is no discharge of such debt through bankruptcy proceedings unless a showing of undue hardship can be made.  (See 2005 Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act).  In theory, such a limitation sounds reasonable to deter frivolous claims, but in practice the language essentially denies relief to all but a handful of the most financially strapped individuals.  While “undue hardship” is not defined in the statute, a definitive three-prong test was crafted in Brunner v. New York State Higher Education Services Corp. There, the court determined that prospective student bankrupts must establish:

(1)   that the debtor cannot maintain, based on current income and expenses, a “minimal” standard of living for herself and her dependents if forced to repay the loans;
(2)   that additional circumstances exist indicating that this state of affairs is likely to persist for a significant portion of the repayment period of the student loans; and
(3)   that the debtor has made good faith efforts to repay the loans.

The use of vague, qualifying language including: minimal standard of living, likely to persist for a significant portion of the repayment period, and good faith efforts, has helped set an impossibly high hurdle for any American hoping to shed student loan debt through bankruptcy.  As an example, the standard was actually met recently when a former law student showed that her diagnosis of Asperger Syndrome prevented her from obtaining meaningful employment to repay her $339,361 of student loan debt.  Without such extreme circumstances though, U.S. bankruptcy courts rarely allow for a discharge.  What’s more egregious is that in the rare instance that this type of discharge is granted, the debtor immediately owes the IRS, and possibly others, for taxes on Cancellation of Debt Income.

The Canadian Model

In Canada, the process for gaining relief from student loans through bankruptcy, as set forth in § 178 of the Canada Bankruptcy and Insolvency Act, is more forgiving to debtors.  The Canadian Student Loan Bankruptcy Blog conveniently distills the statutory requirements north of the border and explains how cases have normally proceeded, while also tracking proposed legislation in this area.  Essentially, a debtor may enter bankruptcy to fully discharge student loan debt 7 years after she was last enrolled as a student and the loans may then be automatically discharged.  The Canadian government or a private creditor can challenge the discharge though (even if 7 years have passed since the debtor was a student), which then requires the debtor to meet the requirements of a two-part test consisting of: 1) whether the debtor has shown good faith with their actions toward the student loans; and 2) whether the debtor will experience financial difficulty if forced to repay the loans. 

The court in the Ontario bankruptcy case of Giera (Re) set forth four factors to determine whether a debtor has acted in good faith:

[1] whether the money was used for the purpose loaned and if the education was completed, [2] whether the Bankrupt is deriving economic benefit from the education, [3] whether there were any reasonable efforts to repay the loans and [4] whether there was any effort by the Bankrupt to take advantage of interest relief or remission options offered by the lenders

Whether a bankrupt will experience financial difficulty in repaying the loans is determined through the court examining the debtor’s income, assets, and expenses to gauge the potential that the obligations can be met.  The court will also look to how much effort the debtor has put towards finding employment, if she is unemployed or underemployed.  Additionally, there is a special hardship provision through which a former student can apply for a loan discharge after only 5 years, but will have to immediately satisfy the same two-part test as above.   

In the last 20 years, the U.S. has systematically toughened its laws on discharging student loan debt to coincide with the increasing prevalence of student loans.  Before 1998, dischargeability in this area was not always based on the undue hardship standard and the process more closely resembled Canada’s, with the possibility of discharge available 5 years after ceasing to be a student.  Similarly, even private student loans remained dischargeable according to a lesser standard until the 2005 legislation mentioned above was passed to curb a perceived widespread abuse of the bankruptcy process.  Though student debtors have lately been subject to more restrictions in all of the Western common law jurisdictions, Canada has on balance seemed more sympathetic to student debtors than the U.S.  Furthermore, Canadian legislation continues to point in the more positive direction of lessening the burden of proof for prospective bankrupts.  See the recommendations in the Final Report of the Personal Insolvency Task Force.

Aggravating Factors

The astronomical rise of college tuition, and the overall economic climate mean that the U.S. may be forced to reexamine its policy toward student loan debt when it comes to bankruptcy in the near future.  Traditionally at common law, the bankruptcy process was a means through which a creditor was able to exercise his rights, with possible results being that debtors could be imprisoned or hanged.  But the modern conception of bankruptcy does not contemplate criminal punishment and seeks to balance creditor’s rights against debtor’s rights in a more equal fashion than was originally conceived.  Western common law jurisdictions have recognized that to better foster an entrepreneurial environment, a fresh start must be available for debtors whose economic ventures don’t always succeed.  Shouldn’t students be afforded the same relief? And what future costs will the American economy pay if students don’t get relief?

As of now, college tuition remains substantially lower in Canada than in the U.S.  And though recent efforts from the Obama administration have made the student loan repayment process more manageable, a confluence of factors mean that this may not be enough.  First, the President has made it a primary goal to further increase the availability of student loans to ensure greater access to higher education for Americans who may not be otherwise able to afford the costs of a college education.  Second, the federal government has now taken over the administration of student loans.  Though it backed many of these loans previously, it now has even more at stake when enforcing repayment and cannot afford mass defaults.  Finally, the economic downturn has magnified the difficulties that former students face in paying back their loans; without some further action to mitigate current circumstances, defaults are likely to increase in short order.

Conclusion

Considering how many talking points during the U.S. Presidential election have revolved around job creation, small business owners, entrepreneurship, and consumer spending, the increasing student debt should be getting more attention than it is.  There have been some commendable efforts to address this issue: the Student Loan Forgiveness Act proposed in the House of Representatives earlier this year.  However, a comprehensive reconsideration of American bankruptcy policy and, more specifically, easing the path to dischargeability of student loans may be necessary very soon.  A good place to start would be with Canada’s current policy.

Friday, September 28, 2012

Canada and the Underground Economy


A 'new' spin tactic for politicians dealing with a rough economy: count the underground economy!

The Underground Economy and Canada: A Hoovering ~2% of GDP From 1992-2009


Statistics Canada yesterday released an update to its early September study on the underground economy in Canada from 1992 - 2009. Here are the main takeaways from the report:
In 2009, total underground activity in Canada was estimated at $35 billion, an increase of 77% from 1992, whereas nominal GDP grew by 118% over that same period. This estimate of underground economic activity was equivalent to 2.3% of GDP in 2009, down from 2.9% in 1992. 

The main reason for the slower growth of the UE compared to the total economy is that industries traditionally considered to be involved in the UE activity did not grow as fast as the overall economy, or as fast as other industries less impacted by the UE.

UE activity may be found in any industry. However, the three most significant industry sectors in terms of UE activity in 2009 were construction (29%), retail trade (20%), and accommodation and food services (12%). These industry sectors accounted for 61% of the total UE estimate.
To get a sense of comparison, the EU has estimated Italy's underground economy to represent 17% of Italy's total GDP.

The Pros and Cons of a Thriving Underground Economy

So what is this an interesting/vexing issue for policy makers. From page 2 of the introductory essay 2005's Size, Causes And Consequences of the Underground Economy: An International Perspective, by Christopher Bajada and Friedrich Schneider:

1.  Saps tax coffers, triggering increased taxes, which then saps tax coffers even more as the underground economy grows.  
"...If the growth of underground activities is caused by a rise in the overall tax and social security burden, together with institutional sclerosis, then the consecutive 'flight' into the underground economy may erode the tax and social security bases further adversely affecting the future provision of public goods and services.  The result can be a vicious circle..."
2.  Can't Make Good Economy Policy if You Don't Have Good Economic Data.
"A growing underground economy may cause severe difficulties for politicians, particularly their use of official indicators -- unemployment rates, labour force participation rates, income and consumption figures, just to mention a few -- that are unreliable in the presence of a growing underground economy.  Policy based on erroneous official indicators is likely to be ineffective or in the worse case, counter-productive."
3.  But the Underground Economy Still Helps, and Hurts, the Legitimate Economy.
"The effects of a growing underground economy of legitimate activity is quite important to consider.  On the one hand, a prospering underground economy may attract (domestic and foreign) workers away from legitimate employment and create competition for legitimate firms.  On the other hand, a significant portion of income (at least 2/3) earned in the underground economy is immediately spent in the legitimate economy, generating a positive impact in the legitimate sector that may otherwise not have come about."

Friday, September 7, 2012

China's "Mother of All Debt Bombs": Financial Time Bomb or Manageable Malady?


By Keith Edmund White
Editor-in-Chief

Today's Diplomat features Minxin Pei's alarming article over a suspected debt bomb lurching in China.  To keep the Chinese economy humming during the 2008 economic crisis, China had their own stimulus plan--one that relied heavily (~60%) on making it easier for local governments to borrow money.  So what's the worry today?  Massive local government infrastructure projects are likely to have a loan bounce rate of 10-20% (~$2 trillion give or take .4 trillion).  Along with a shadow banking system that is probably hiding the extent of its own bad loans, China may just be hiding "the mother of all debt bombs."  But is this bad, or just a correction that can be managed--and is actually a good thing?  Well, there's no consensus--but, one thing's for sure:  we all need to be watching China.

Watch out--China's banking system might be a ticking time bomb.  And if there is a financial crash in China, it's clear that it will be the defining economic development of 2013--and have a impact on the recovering American economy and softening Canadian economy.

From Minxin Pei's article, Are Chinese Banks Hiding "The Mother of All Debt Bombs"?:  [Note:  Pei's answer--yes.]

Flooding the economy with trillions of yuan in new loans did accomplish the principal objective of the Chinese government — maintaining high economic growth in the midst of a global recession.  While Beijing earned plaudits around the world for its decisiveness and economic success, excessive loose credit was fueling a property bubble, funding the profligacy of state-owned enterprises, and underwriting ill-conceived infrastructure investments by local governments.  The result was predictable: years of painstaking efforts to strengthen the Chinese banking system were undone by a spate of careless lending as new bad loans began to build up inside the financial sector.

To get a sense of China's debt problem, visuals can help:
The first graph compares China debt to GDP to Japan's debt to GDP 1988 by sector.  The second graph shows the growing wave of dark blue (loan growth) and the failure of this to correspond to a growth in money supply.  What does this suggest?  That even though there's a lot of cheap money in the Chinese economy, a lot of this is being eaten up by bad investments.  
Pei, a Calremont KcKenna Collegee Professor and Senior Fellow at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, offers concise but thorough review of the economic weaknesses that the cheap-money approach has left China with.  I offer the following as an even more boiled down summary, weaving in Pei's analysis:

(1) Local government financing vehicles (LGFV)--financial entities created by local governments to encourage investment in infrastructure projects--owed 9.7 - 14.4 trillion yuan (~$1.5 trillion - $2.26 trillion) in 2010.  The problem:  "Chinese LGFVs are known mainly for their unique ability to sink perfectly good money into bottomless holes in the ground.  So taking on a huge mountain of debt can mean only one thing -- a future wave of default when the projects into which LGFVs have piled funds fail to yield viable returns to service debt."  The result:  Chinese banks may have to "write down 2 to 2.8 trillion yuan, a move sure to destroy their balance sheets."

(2) Biggest worry:  China's wealth management products, or WMPs.  Think of WMPs' effect on China's economy like derivatives effect on the U.S. economy in 2008.  In the U.S., then-newly created financial instruments called derivatives--which were tools that let people bet on an investment (you could 'hedge' your investment by finding someone to buy your bet against the investment).  The real problem, big firms over-leveraged in derivatives and didn't have the money to cover their bets when the economy soured--and, worse yet--financial assessments of firms did not consider this financial risk exposure when grading their credit-worthiness.

China has a similar problem.  Instead of derivatives, China has a shadow banking system, where--off the books--they provide loans to "private entrepreneurs and real estate developers denied access to the official banking system...."  Why are these attractive?  Because China controls returns from the official banking system.  The result, 11.5 percent of the total bank deposits are in "wealth management products" that invest in riskier/higher return investments.  Pei states that conservative estimates put 10% of these investments as utter flops, which means "another 1 trillion yuan in potential bank losses."

Why are analysts worried?  Chinese banks are now reporting "that non-performing loans are only 1 percent of total outstanding credit."  With the flood of cheap money and suspected 'true' amount of non-performing loans estimated as actually 10-20%, we are led to the most worrisome conclusion of Pei's piece:
"One thing is evident here.  Either we should not believe our "lying eyes" or Chinese banks are trying to hide the mother of all debt bombs.
(3)  The real estate market bubble:  47 business owners of real estate companies disappeared in 2011 to avoid repaying billions in bank loans.

(4)  Loans to Chinese manufacturers may not be paid back.  Chinese manufacturing firms (a) have slim profits even in good times and (b) make too much stuff.  The result?  A Chinese slow down will likely lead over-stocked manufacturers to flood the market, but still not able to pay back their loans.
Now, naturally, there's a quick rejoinder to these concerns:  Doesn't China have so much money, that it can easily write off $1-3 trillion in bad loans?  The Economist isn't worried, but others aren't so sure. 

Michael Pettis, a Senior Associate at Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, isn't so sure:
Is Debt a Problem?

The rest of the [Economist] article argues in part that China can easily manage its debt problems because debt levels are actually relatively low and China has room to increase its net indebtedness:

China’s economy does need help, and its government has ample scope to provide it. Some local governments took on more debt than they could handle. But their liabilities never endangered the fiscal position of the country as a whole. The combined debts of China’s central and local governments add up to about 50% of the country’s GDP (including bonds issued by the Ministry of Railways and China’s policy banks, intended for state-directed lending). Even if local debts are understated, China has fiscal room for error.

I am not sure I agree. First, to make a minor point, I don’t think real estate has necessarily been the “biggest fear hanging over” China. I have always argued that the biggest worry is the unsustainable increase in debt, which historical precedents suggest is an almost automatic consequence of an aging investment-driven growth miracle. While the real estate bubble gets most of press, I would argue that several of the analysts who have been in the skeptic’s camp for many years, like Logan Wright of Medley Advisors or Victor Shih, now with Carlyle, usually agree that debt is the most worrying problem.

Of course borrowing money to fund a real estate bubble is an important source of bad debt, but I have argued for many years, and continue to believe, that economically non-viable infrastructure investment has been a much greater source of bad debt, by which I mean debt whose servicing cost (excluding of course interest rate repression) exceeds the debt servicing capacity created by the investment (excluding subsidies and including externalities). Empty buildings may be much easier to visualize, and much more photogenic, and many people still have an impossibly tough time understanding why it is possible to overinvest infrastructure (isn’t all infrastructure spending good?), but I would argue that sharply reducing infrastructure investment, or at least diverting it into more useful – if less glamorous – projects, is more important than reducing excess real estate development, although this too is clearly a problem.

But that aside, my disagreement with the article is really about whether or not China has a low enough debt level that we can relax about the “fiscal room for error.” Is the relevant debt really just 50% of GDP?
In sum:  China has a considerable debt problem.  Whether China can absorb this debt in a manageable fashion will be seen over the coming months.  In either case, pushing worries aside, readers should take solace:  We've found the one thing that bring the world's largest economies together--debt.


Want to learn more?

China's 'Little' Debt Problem, Business Insider, Sept. 5, 2010

China bank risks on the rise, analysts warn, Chris Oliver, MarketWatch, Sept. 7, 2012.

China's Local Debt Is No Problem, [Chinese Premier] Wen Says, Bloomberg Businessweek, March 14, 2012.

Despite Growth, China Too Faces Debt Problems, Frank Langfitt, NPR, Dec. 12, 2011.

How Will China Pay Off Its Debt?, Gordon G. Chang, Forbes, Feb. 26, 2012.

Thursday, September 6, 2012

Canada's Party Caucus Round-Up: Liberals Open Up the Leadership Vote; NDP Plots for 2014; Conservatives Push Trade Agreements and Voice Concern Over China's Acquisition of Nexen Conditions

By Keith Edmund White

Two of Canada's national parties--the Liberals and NDP--are wrapping up caucus meetings today, with the Conservatives on deck to chart of their paraliamentary strategy for the next year.  In short, the Liberals are looking for a leader; the NDP is trying to keep their lead in the polls; and the Conservatives are pushing a economic strategy emphasizing energy and trade-liberalization while they can still hold onto power.

Now's the season for Canada party conferences.  For the out-of-power Liberals, their ongoing three-day meeting is dominated by an internecine leadership battle.  Of particular note:  the Liberals will be releasing today the voting rules for their April leadership race, which will expand the voting base to non-dues paying Liberal "supporters."  Why is this important?  When you change the rules of the game, results tend to change too.  Clearly, the Liberals are trying to ensure whoever their leader is, they'll enjoy a boarder base of popular support.  Whether this gets Liberals back in power--or even back as the official opposition--has yet to be seen.

On the other hand, the NDP--as the official opposition--will be focusing on how to challenge the Conservative's agenda, and how to prepare for an election they suspect will occur in Fall 2014.  The PQ's victory in Quebec's provincial elections could complicate NDP efforts hold on the seats they won in Quebec last year.

And then there are the Conservatives, who's caucus meeting will focus on policy details.  The Hill Times (subscription--but try the free trial) reports that the planned takeover of Alberta's Nexen, Inc.--an oil and natural gas generator--by the state-controlled Chinese Company Cnooc is getting the Conservative's attention.  Naturally, as Canada's #1 energy purchaser, America is watching too--and hoping to use the planned purchase to push China to (1) allow U.S. companies to buy Chinese companies, (2) make U.S. foreign investment in China easier, and (3) enforce intellectual property infringements.

From The HillTimes:
The “high stakes” CNOOC-Nexen deal will be one of the Conservative Party’s top priorities when the caucus meets for a half-day session on Sept. 17 on the Hill, says a political insider. 
“This is the largest acquisition ever in Canada by an offshore state-owned enterprise, and this kind of thing always generates some degree of debate and or unease,” Earnscliffe Strategy Group principal Yaroslav Baran told The Hill Times in an email. “You can bet there will be discussion about this—all the different angles, from populist sentiment to reciprocity to the market signals that the final decision will send.”

Industry Minister Christian Paradis (Mégantic-l’Érable, Que.) said last week in a statement that he will take the time needed “to carefully examine CNOOC’s proposed acquisition of Nexen Inc. and determine whether it is likely to be of net benefit to Canada.”
And for the U.S. perspective, MarketWatch.com reports:
Chinese energy giant Cnooc Ltd.’s $15.1 billion deal to buy Nexen Inc. is under increasing political scrutiny in the U.S. even as it faces a long regulatory review in Canada.

“It is rare that we have so much leverage to exert upon China. We should not let this window of opportunity pass us by. At some point, we have to put our foot down over China’s refusal to play by the rules of free trade,” U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer, a New York Democrat, wrote Friday in a letter to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner.

Geithner and the Treasury Department chair the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S., or CFIUS, an interagency board that reviews deals for national security implications. Cnooc, or the China National Offshore Oil Corp., is a government-owned company.

The deal is subject to CFIUS review because Calgary, Canada-based Nexen has substantial drilling operations in the U.S. portion of the Gulf of Mexico.

It is expected that the Cnooc-Nexen (CA:NXY) deal will be reviewed by CFIUS in Washington and by securities regulators and courts at the federal level in Ottawa, Canada
But of the most interest to me, is the Conservatives push for additional free trade pacts.  From The HillTimes:
Mr. [Yaroslav] Baran, who previously worked as a Hill staffer to the government House leader, said the Conservative Party policy planks such as economic management, international trade, and resource development will also likely be topics of discussion for the party in the lead up to the fall legislative session.

“The new catchphrase is that trade is the new stimulus,” Mr. Baran noted, identifying the progress on the Canada-EU free trade agreement and the Trans-Pacific Partnership as key priorities for the government this fall.

“Diversifying trade relationships has been a key government objective over the past six years, with nine free trade agreements concluded to date—albeit with smaller countries—and [more than] 50 other negotiations underway,” he said.
This trade focus is important, especially when viewed through the Canada-U.S. bilateral relationship.  Pushing a resource-heavy strategy incentivizes Canada to implement policies that help the natural resource trade, which can disadvantage Canadian manufacturers.  Furthermore, the Conservative push for ever more trade-pacts could speed up the declining--but still very dominant role--American contribution to Canada's GDP.

In any case, the likely election in 2014 will bring with it a big question of economic policy:  Can Canada's manufacturing sector compete on the world stage, and--if so--should Canada return to a more balanced monetary and trade policy to support it?  And, if Canada does so, could that lead to decline in the resource-heavy trade that has supported Canada through the last decade?  Or will the NDP--pushing a "balanced" approach to Canadian economic growth--for the first time ever take control of Parliament and successfully navigate Canada through economic waters--that in the long-term--don't look all that smooth.

Friday, June 8, 2012

Ottawa Citizen Highlights: Canadian and U.S. Productivity Difference, Harper's Green Isolation


By Keith Edmund White
Editor-in-Chief


Harper deals with the internal strife any governing party faces. For now, with a federal election 3-4 years away, Harper's position and Conservative governance are assured. But Harper's aggressive natural resource development push and resulting tone-deaf appearance to environmental concerns is bringing divides to the party. But is this green divide really just about the environment, or could be also be the economic trade-offs that have come with Harper's push to make Canada an increasingly resource-based economy? Whatever the cause, Harper's push for resource exploitation--while perhaps needed to buffer a fragile global economy--could come at a big political and economic costs down the line.

Two interesting articles, one new and one from last week, from the Ottawa Citizen.

First, while the U.S. and Canadian economies are inextricably linked, the Ottawa Citizen points out the interesting and profound productivity difference between the two neighboring economies. Before highlight sections from the article, why does this matter?

Well, because it shows the contradiction that is keep Canada's GDP--in the short-term--trucking (albeit slowly) along. Canada has pushed its economic growth through expanding its labor market (good for employment numbers!), but this has come at a cost: worker productivity. In the U.S. the opposite trend line occurred. The culprit (perhaps): the strong Canadian dollar, that allows its economy to be relatively inefficient owing to strong demand for its commodities. The interesting effect: this probably isn't a good long-term strategy: with a declining labor market (people are getting old!), labor market expansion can't push up the GDP. Also, Canada's manufacturing market may become increasingly unable to compete with other nations.

From the May 29, 2012 article by the Financial Post's Ian Martin:
“Canada should actually be celebrating this remarkable balancing act,” Mr. Lascelles said. “As much as we all would love the Canadian manufacturing and resource sectors to be firing on all cylinders at the same time, the reality is, it’s usually one or the other.”

Either way, prices have helped to ensure Canadian economic health.
But given demographic trends, Canada can’t just rely on shifting fortunes to level out growth prospects, Mr. Cross argued. 
“We’ve gotten away for 20 years in this country with not-great productivity because we’ve had offsetting developments in the price mechanism. Can you count on that forever? Probably not,” he said. “It’s hard to imagine how you’re going to get another break in the price mechanism that will help you offset the aging of the population.”
What makes this more interesting? Harper is doubling down on the natural resource-focused Canadian economy. Why? Well, this keeps the Canadian going in the right direction. And, arguably, dealing with other economic sectors weaknesses is easier to do with a raising GDP than a falling GDP. Furthermore, with Europe's economic woes, its probably best to push off dealing with Canada's delicate balancing after Europe gets his house in order. And, anyway, Harper has time (3-4 years) to revisit the issue, hopefully when the international economic picture looks a bit rosier.

But whether or no Harper's economy strategy may be tipping Canada's "remarkable balancing act" closer to its inevitable tipping point, one things for certain: the now-majority Conservative government lead by Harper , as is common with long-standing administrations, is facing internal dissent. The focus: environmental concerns over Harper's natural resource push.

Side-note: Though, again, note that the environmental murmurings find political strength in the Canadian Atlantic coast, which is also an area that relies on manufacturing--a sector that is not enjoying the natural resource-fueled high Canadian dollar.

From today's article (Harper's new enemy: conservatives, by Susan Riley) that highlights progressive Conservative unease with Harper's all-out push for natural resource expansion:
There is a new front opening, as opposition to Stephen Harper’s budget — and his broader agenda — gathers strength. Increasingly, criticism is coming from dismayed conservatives offended by Harper’s hostility, or indifference, to the environment. And to democratic tradition. 
The dissidents are mostly Progressive Conservatives, but not exclusively. This week, for instance, former Alberta Reform MP Bob Mills joined Green Party Leader Elizabeth May in decrying the elimination of the National Roundtable on the Environment and the Economy (a Mulroney-era initiative).
... 
There have even been rumblings in the mostly docile, Conservative-controlled Senate. Senators Nancy Ruth and Hugh Segal, a Red Tory stalwart, have both strongly objected to the government’s crackdown on environmental charities. 
Credible criticism of other aspects of the omnibus bill — notably the weakening of the fisheries act — has come from Tom Siddon and John Fraser, Mulroney-era cabinet ministers. Siddon, now 70, lambasted the government for undoing decades of environmental progress, returning Canada to the status of “hewers of wood,” and for ramming changes through Parliament. “This is unbecoming of the Conservative party I belonged to,” he said.

To some, this will sound like the grumbling of old warhorses, but, elsewhere, Progressive Conservatives are enjoying a moment. Former Alberta premier Peter Lougheed, now 83, was feted in Calgary this week. Lougheed — who serves as a role model, and influential cheerleader, for Redford — reminded his audience, pointedly, that he always put Canada first. 
Harper wasn’t feeling much love from Atlantic Canadian conservatives this week, either. New Brunswick’s David Alward and Kathy Dunderdale, of Newfoundland and Labrador, questioned federal EI reforms that, they argue, fundamentally misunderstand and devalue the Atlantic Canadian economy. 
Premiers will always put regional loyalties before party, but there is little evidence of kinship between Harper and Atlantic conservatives. They don’t even seem to belong to the same party.

Monday, June 4, 2012

Canada Shares In U.S. Economic Woes, But Is Canada's Response of Pushing Energy Development Going to Push Divisive Political Regionalism?

By Keith Edmund White 
Editor-in-Chief

The global economy slowing, and the United States economic motor slowing too.  One result:  Canada’s economic growth has stalled as well.  But is Canada, with its low-debt and resource-high economy, more able to respond to troubling economic times?  Perhaps.  But a year-long study by a environmental thinktank shows that Canada’s conservative government active support for resource-development comes at a cost—and could sharpen Canada's regional tensions.  Then, again, anything that gets Quebec and Ontario on the same side can't be all that bad...right?


Already hobbled by Europe's debt crisis, the world now risks being hurt by slowdowns in its economic powerhouses. 
 The U.S. economy, the world's largest, had a third straight month of feeble job growth in May. High-flying economies in China, India and Brazil are slowing, too.

Naturally, news of the U.S. jobs data has dominated the news coverage.  But it also bears mentioning that Canada’s relatively well-performing economic has hit a snag too.  Canada's economic growth last quarter was a meager .9%, well below the government forecast of 2.5%.

The immediate result?  Canadian interest rates will not raise .  And while low rates can help spur growth, there is a price—taking money away from safe investments bonds and into the equity market to have investors achieve their desired rate of return.  And, as documented in the Globe and Mail, this has a particular impact on soon-to-be retirees:

It was just the latest sign that the new retirement would not be like the old: Defined benefit plans have given way to less generous defined contribution plans, stock market losses have pushed out many people’s retirement horizons, and the huge run-up in home prices that translated into a retirement bonanza for retirees will likely not be repeated – in fact it has meant bigger mortgages and less for retirement for follow-on generations.

But when it comes to responding the a possible double-dip, Canada does have one important advantage over the U.S.:

He said Canada, with its solid domestic economic fundamentals and its majority government, is "in a position to act" on the economy.
"Our fiscal situation is sound," he said, and Canada has fiscal "room to move," should a downturn encroach on Canada's relatively robust economy.
But will Canada's Conservative actually push a stimulus if the economic dips back into recession.  Sure they have the fiscal space to pursue such a strategy, but will a government that's pushing controversial cuts to government spending be willing to reverse course?

For right now, Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper does not see public spending as the way to spur growth in Canada.  Instead, Harper is pushing resource development—an understandable strategy, since it offers growth and minimal political blow back in the short-term.  (Note:  Environmental groups are up in arms, but it doesn't look like environmental concerns are going to sway Canada's national politics in the near-future.)

But will there be a steep economic and political price to Harper's energy push in the medium or long-term?  Yes, according to a recent study by the Pembina think tank, a Canadian energy think tank.  Thestar.com reports on the study that emphasizes the costs of quickly--if not hastily--turning Canada into a resource-heavy economy

The symptoms are an inflated dollar and provincial tensions caused by a national economy that is increasingly tilted toward supporting the resource boom in northern Alberta.
It is a grave condition, but it is treatable if the federal government acts soon, says the Pembina Institute, an environmental think tank.
 
It also follows NDP leader Thomas Mulcair’s charge that Canada is suffering from “Dutch Disease” — a 1960s phenomenon in which the Netherlands invested heavily in offshore oil and suffered devastation in its manufacturing sector.
Similar problems are occurring in Canada’s manufacturing sector — particularly in Ontario and Quebec — but Mulcair’s simplistic diagnosis ignores the impacts of a weak economy in the United States and rise of China as a global manufacturing hub, the Pembina report says. 
 “It’s raised this issue to a level of both political and public prominence that is necessary. It has triggered a divisive debate that’s premised more upon rhetoric on both sides as opposed to really digging into the details of what’s happening and what can be done,” said Dan Woynillowicz, co-author of the report.
Coupled with the collapse of manufacturing jobs in Ontario and Quebec, the booming oilpatch, backed by a supportive federal government, threatens to cleave the country in two, Woynillowicz said.
It is not hard to envision a reverse of Alberta’s grievances of the 1980s over a National Energy Policy that subsidized western energy to support the needs of the rest of the country, he said. The western alienation phenomenon gave rise to a political protest movement that, years later, landed Prime Minister Stephen Harper in power.
“I actually think right now we’re potentially seeing that exact same dynamic setting up, but with the roles reversed — with the West being seen to be supported by the federal government in pursuing their interests at the expense of central and eastern Canada,” Woynillowicz said.
He said Wednesday that what he would like to see is a more sustainable development of Alberta’s bitumen, with a strategy that would bring jobs and money to other parts of the country rather than simply shipping the raw products to refineries in other countries.
Natural Resources Minister Joe Oliver said Mulcair’s “real agenda” is to introduce a carbon tax, stop development of the oilsands and put thousands of jobs in jeopardy.
The Pembina report makes what the authors described as modest recommendations, including eliminating subsidies for the oil and gas sector, studying the impact of the oilsands on the Canadian economy as well as the problem of regional competitiveness under a high Canadian dollar, creating a national energy strategy and using the corporate taxes collected from oilsands operators to ease the transition when the resource is used up.

I would  link to Pembina’s website for more information, but Pembina is participating in an internet blackout to protest against the proposed Conservative budget.