Quebec Election 2012: The (Inward Looking?) PQ Is Back, Liberals Fall, and the Center-Right CAQ Shows Its Staying Power

By Keith Edmund White

For American political junkies bored by the Democratic and Republican conventions, I would recommend tracking Quebec’s provincial election, taking place Sept. 4. Not only is the three-way race close, a center-right party is in striking distance of taking power in Quebec for the first time in modern history.

Admittedly, after four nights of debate, a poll has the Parti Quebecois (PQ)—a party supporting Quebec sovereignty and separation from Canada) in the lead, with 33% of the vote. And this might be the lead story, since 2007 saw support for the PQ implode, and give the party its first third-place finish in decades.

But most dramatic, to me, is the tie between the Liberal Party and the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ)—a new party combining the former conservative Action Democratic Party and parts of the Parti Quebecois, standing at 27% and 28% respectively. Also, of note: the same poll found CAQ leader Francois Legault out-performed his rivals, the PQ’s Jean Pauline Marois and the Liberal’s Jean Charest.

Quebec has been governed by the Liberal Party for the last nine years, and either the Liberals or the PQ have held Quebec's parliament for the last forty years. (Side-note: anyone with a chance to visit Quebec City should really take a tour of the gorgeous parliament building and note the distinct lack of Canadian flags until you enter the near-by Parks Canada Fortifications of Quebec, a national historic site).

Most immediately, the PQ’s rise now has Quebec sovereignty issues grabbing headlines. First, the PQ has found itself twisting over its position on the timing of yet-another referendum on Quebec independence. The issue: whether only a petition of 15% of Quebec’s citizens would trigger a third referendum on independence, or if provincial parliamentary approval would be needed before a referendum took place. The significance: With only 30-40% of Quebec's citizens supporting independence, many voters see focusing on cultural or independence issues—instead of say, focusing on economic issues—not a thrilling prospect.

Second, the PQ is also facing criticism for some pro-sovereignty planks in its platforms. The PQ now wants a French language test for anyone running in provincial or municipal elections and a secularism charter that bans public servants from wearing of “conspicuous” religious symbols.

The National Post probes this inward lurch the PQ, interviewing critics and opponents of the PQ’s platform, gets at two conclusions: (1) demographic changes do show that Montreal may become minority French-speaking within two decades, a troubling development to Quebecers in favor of preserving the city’s French culture; (2) while easily characterized as intolerant, the moves do support PQ’s central goal of independence: (a) both proposals will likely be slapped down the Canadian Supreme Court, making it easy for the PQ to show Quebec doesn’t ‘fit’ into Canada’s federalism and (b) they are measures, if enacted, which could lead to next decade’s young voters pushing a independence reference over 50%.

But more interesting, to me, is the raise of the center-right CAQ. First, it is important to note, that in the 2007 provincial elections, its pre-merger Action Democratic Party finished second, taking advantage of an imploding PQ. But now, even in the face of a reinvigorated PQ party, the newly-minted CAQ is showing that center-rights politics in Quebec aren’t fading fast.

Sympathetic to Quebec’s French identity, the CAQ supports Quebec nationalism, but has promised a moratorium on independence for 10 years. In doing so, it has transformed the election from one between a left-leaning federalist party and left-leaning separatist party, but one that promises either a durable center-right opposition party, or even a possible center-right government in Quebec. In fact, the only thing that seems to be holding the CAQ from getting even more supports are doubts that the CAQ, like the PQ, will push for Quebec’s independence from Canada.

In short, this election matters. Will the PQ hang onto their lead, but then find its return to political power short-lived: with squabbling over a third referendum and court battles robbing it of public support? Will the Liberals hang on, stoking fears that a PQ and CAQ win will focus Quebec politics on independence and culture issues, at the expense of more pressing issues, like the economy and healthcare? Or will the CAQ quash doubts about its commitment to Canadian federalism, and break the left-leaning strangle hold on Quebec politics?