"With the Green Party’s intervention, it’s a good bet he’ll been looking at his second decade as PM soon."

By Keith Edmund White, Editor-in-Chief

Yes, Canada's Left is under-cutting itself.  But personality-politics should settle this question before Canada's next round of parliamentary election.  So, stop complaining about the Liberal-NDP divide, let alone the Greens delivering Harper another term as Prime Minister. Though, as The Real Story blog shows, is can make for entertaining reading.

The Real Story, a Canadian political blog, mocks a defense of having three centre-left political parties on Canada's national political scene.  With the NDP-Liberals-Greens all competing for seats in Canada's ridings, a divided Left is going to deliver Canada another two terms of Conservative Prime Minister Harper:

Because for all the Green Party’s disclaimers about vote splitting [(1) you owe it to your supporters to run & (2) non-voters will only come out if you show political alternatives] one truth remains.

The truth – and Calgary Centre proves it – is that three parties on the centre left is useful to only one person in Canada. And that’s Stephen Harper. With the Green Party’s intervention, it’s a good bet he’ll been looking at his second decade as PM soon.

TRS isn't alone in this assessment, though it's logic-evisceration of Chris Turner's, the Green's candidate in Calgary by-election last week--op-ed claiming he didn't throw the election to the Conservatives is particularly delicious. 

But, first, it's entirely too early for all this belly-aching.  There are years before the next election..

Second, when you look at recent national polling, Canada' voters--not politicians--need to settle the Left divide.  The Liberals and Greens are painstacking close in popular support, and as long as that holds up, how do you expect an insurgent political party to tell members to lose prestige in the main of winning an election they could still win on their own?  

And, in any case, the Greens won't make the difference nationally.

My advice:  Green and Liberals, show your policy and leadership differences and take a look at the polling in two years.

Last thought:  Personality-politics will settle this.  Thomas Mulcair's tenure as Leader of the Opposition should settle which party is the leader of the Left soon enough, one or the other.

PQ’s Learning Curve: Just What the NDP Needs to Win in 2015?

Editorial

By Keith Edmund White

Ignore reports of slipping NDP support, which the Globe and Mail attributes to the Parti Quebecois's (PQ) narrow victory in Quebec last month.  The PQ may be just what the NDP needs to take Ottawa by storm in 2015. 

OK, first some background for those not hip to the Canadian political scene.  In what has been historically a two-party contest for Canada’s national government, the NDP—for the first time—offered a Canadian third way: crushing the once-dominant Liberal Party, but still failing to stop Canada’s conservative party—and Prime Minister Harper—from turning their minority government into a majority government (i.e. the Conservatives had been the biggest party in Parliament, but didn’t have a majority of votes until 2011).  So, now all three parties are plotting how best to approach Canada’s next election, slated to occur on or before October 19, 2015.

Now, all this Ottawa long-game chess-playing gets delightfully complicated by provincial politics.  Just like the first crack in the Obama 2008 coalition was a Republican winning Virginia’s 2009 gubernatorial race, the narrow victory of the Parti Quebecois (PQ)—a pro-Quebec secessionist party—has injected more drama in Canadian politics.  For better or worse, Quebec—owing to history and the ever-present chance another independence referendum—still grabs what some undoubtedly consider a disproportionate share of the nation’s media attention.  So the PQ’s victory has brought headaches—and opportunity—for Canada’s three major national parties.  But, don’t worry, the political pain is being shared, with the PQ already nursing some of their own political missteps.

Why should the PQ running Quebec worry the national Conservatives and NDP?  Well, for the Conservatives, beyond the PQ possibly dragging the country into a constitutional/secessionist crisis (unlikely given their minority government status), the PQ is Quebec’s left-leaning party.  (Note:  The NDP has not built a provincial party in Quebec, even though it owes its ‘government-in-waiting’ status to Quebec voters.)    What’s this mean?  The PQ, according to Paul Wells at Macleans, “is already doing the opposite” of the Harper government on spurring investment, immigration, and energy.  But the big issue here is taxes.  From Wells’s jeremiad-bordering editorial: 

Marois’s new government is already doing the opposite of what Harper laid out at Davos. Systematically. It’s like she’s keeping a checklist.  

“Is it the case that in the developed world,” Harper told the Davos toffs, “too many of us have, in fact, become complacent about our prosperity, taking our wealth as a given, assuming it is somehow the natural order of things, leaving us instead to focus primarily on our services and entitlements?” 

 Marois replies: nope! There’s still plenty of time to take wealth as a given and to focus on entitlements. The university tuition increases that were the object of half a year’s protests are cancelled. But the increased student aid that was supposed to compensate for the tuition hikes remains in place. That’s tens of millions of dollars’ worth of increased burden on universities. “We will continue to make the key investments in science and technology necessary to sustain a modern competitive economy,” Harper said at Davos. Marois is digging a funding hole for universities that will make good science that much harder to afford.

Will this actually cost the Conservative votes?  For now, the overall consensus of the Canadian media elite is that the PQ leftward push is politically foolish and economically wrong-headed.  So, the PQ is doing just what the right-leaning party of Quebec—and the nation—needs to win, right?  Show voters hungry for a change that they should give the reigns to a right leaning, not left leaning party.  Naturally, the Liberals—decimated at the national level, but still strong in Quebec—can play this to their advantage: able to cherry-pick what works for the PQ while bashing what doesn’t, and position themselves as a changed and renewed party that offers the best bet for Quebec voters.

But I suspect the real winners of the PQ in Quebec will be the NDP.  For Conservatives and Liberals to get traction from the PQ, the PQ must fail.  But the NDP can strengthen its next national bid whatever the outcome of the PQ’s minority government.  Yes, the PQ’s victory froze attempts to create a robust, provincial NDP party in Quebec.  But let’s not overlook the obvious advantage the NDP gets in a short-term (the PQ minority government will likely fall well before the next federal election): the chance to learn from every misstep and success of the left-leaning PQ government.

PQ policy subscriptions are—with the exception of succession—pretty close to those of NDP voters.  What’s the NDP missing?  Support of new and current Liberal voters.  How better to see what messages work—and perhaps witness their economic impact—than to have the PQ try push its own independent agenda.  If they succeed, the NDP can make these provincial policies successful national talking points, without the dead-weight of Quebec independence.  And if certain PQ policies crash and burn, the NDP has the time to distance and differentiate their national plans before 2015.  In short, it’s a no-lose for the NPD, barring an NDP debacle of such cataclysmic proportions that Quebec voters become lock-step Harper-ites (unlikely).

So, ignore the polls.  In 2015, the Conservatives will be the classic hangers-on—needing a resurgent economy and new ideas to hold onto Canada’s parliamentary reins for a fourth, yes fourth, time in a row.  The Liberals, well, are in the middle of a leadership contest that could be confused with a nostalgia-heavy spirit quest.  (Yes, I freely double-dip Paul Wells pieces whenever I can; but, do read Gerry Nicholls's compare and contrast piece on Stephen Harper and Liberal upstart/heir-apparent Justin Trudeau.)  And the NDP now has a PQ party too weak to sink their brand in Quebec, but just strong enough to goad Harper, and show the NDP how—or how not—to win in 2015. 

My advice to NDP Leader Thomas Mulcair:  don’t sweat the polls or the PQ.  Focus on using the PQ and Conservatives as foils to create an attractive center-left alternative.  Oh, wait.  He already is.

News Round-Up

Don't miss out!  Get these headlines and more by following us on Twitter (@CUSLI_Nexus) and Facebook.  And to our loyal social media followers, fear not, there's new stuff to check out below.

Ottawa ordered to hand over long-gun registry data collected in Quebec, The Gazette.  Canada's long-gun registry lives--at least in Quebec pending appeal to the Canadian Supreme Court.  Even though the Conservative government abolished and destroy all data in the long-gun registry.  Why?  In short, the quirks of Canadian federalism.  Learn more about Canada's gun control debate and unique blend of federalism from a leading Montreal publication.

Strategic Shifts:  The Future of Energy, World Economic Forum.  Watch Christy Clark, Premier of British Columbia, talk on the global energy industry landscape with energy experts from America, Japan, and China at the World Economic Forum. 

Liberals says they want a competitive leadership race, 'best thing,' especially if Trudeau enters the fray, The Hill Times.  Trudeau or Bust? Inside the Liberals (or Grits) leadership race-it's looking like a free-for-all--for better or worse.

U.S. boom in oil product spells peril for Canadian crude, The Globe and Mail.  Forget the Keystone kurfuffle! Is  booming U.S. natural gas production the real threat to the Canada-United States energy relationship?

It's the permanent campaign, Harper's team never rests, says Flanagan, The Hill Times.  Have Canada's politics been Americanized?  Tom Flanagan, former top adviser and campaign manager to Prime Minister Stephen Harper, shows how the minority status of previous Conservative governments triggered a state of permanent campaigning in Canada, and how it's not stopped with the Conservatives decisive win at last year's election.  Check out the book that Flanagan contributed to, How Canadians Communicate IV:  Media and Politics.  You can even read the whole book.

Canada's Political State of Play: NDP-Conservatives Tied, Liberals Down and Out

The most pressing political question of the next two years is just how the Conservatives plan to bounce back.    After a 2011 victory over 9 points over the second-place NDP, the two national parties find themselves.  If the Conservatives don't turn the tide, Canadians may find themselves ushering in the first-ever NDP era.  Fortunately, the Conservatives have until October 19, 2015 to turn things around, not to mention near-total control over the timing of Canada's next parliamentary election (for American readers interested in learning this feature of parliamentary democracy, click and go to Section E of the helpful Library of Parliament publication).

And about the once-ruling Liberal Party?  They're still stuck in the political wilderness.

From The Hill Times:

Last May the Conservatives won a 166 seat majority with 39.6 per cent of the popular vote nationally, while the NDP won 103 seats with 30.6 per cent of the popular vote.

According to the latest averaging of national polls by aggregator ThreeHundredEight.com, the Conservatives and NDP are now statistically tied in public support, with the two parties’ polling at 33.9 and 33.6 per cent, respectively. The Liberals are a distant third, polling at 21.7 per cent.

The NDP owes its persistent support to a breakthrough in Atlantic Canada over the past year. On election day the party received 29 per cent of popular support in the region, trailing both the Conservatives and the Liberals, who received 38 and 30 per cent popular support at the ballot box, respectively.

PQ Leader/Quebec's New PM Pauline Marois: "...I wouldn't trust her to run a lemonade stand."

By Keith Edmund White

Has the PQ's much smaller-than-expected victory Tuesday ushered in the year of the PQ-CAQ?  

Thank you Yahoo!News Canada for this fantastic take on the just how long the PQ will hang onto their minority government:

Gerry Nicholls: Well, when it comes to Marois' management skills, I wouldn't trust her to run a lemonade stand. Next election will be in the Fall of 2013.

Bruce Hicks: If Marois governs judiciously, she could govern for two years before she might herself decide to go to the polls and try to get a majority. If she tries to do many things without trying to get the support of MNAs outside her party she will probably be brought down by the opposition in 12-18 months.

Gerry Nicholls and Bruce Hicks are both political scientists, and part of Yahoo!News Canada's expert panel on politics.  Conservative commentator Nicholls, self-professed as one of Canada's Top Five Political Minds, hails from Southern Ontario, and offers this fantastically written blog.

Bruce Hicks, who is now a Visiting Scholar at Carlton University, offers the more measured take on the PQ's chances.  Hicks boasts a career in political strategy, journalism, and--most relevant to boviations on Quebec politics--he was an Associate at Montreal University's Canada Research Chair in Electoral Studies (CRCES).  You can find more of his work here.

Beyond the doubts in Marois' management skills, perhaps supported by the PQ coming dangerously close to blowing a sizable lead in the polls last week, Hicks brings up a crucial point:  how is the PQ going to govern, since it will need votes from either the Liberals or right-leaning CAQ?  Well, time will tell, but the CAQ--a conservative coalition party that puts right-leaning reforms ahead of independence issues--seems ready to work with the PQ.

While the PQ and Liberals are ideologically more in sync, the ever-so slim defeat for the Liberals coupled with the CAQ's likely desire to build off their somewhat disappointing third place finish, may lead to a tepid PQ-CAQ partnership.

Note:  It would be remiss to omit a reference to the tragic shooting at the PQ's post-election celebration on Tuesday, which resulted in one death, one critical injury, and a third person's treatment for shock.

Quebec Election 2012: The Significance of a CAQ Win

by Keith Edmund White

Yes, the PQ is still leading polls.  But after a reader comment directed me to review the parties' economic platforms, two things became very clear:  (1) the conservative CAQ are definitely in contention and (2) a CAQ government in Quebec would mean big changes to the economic and spending policies coming out of Quebec City.

Quebec Party Platforms

After a reader comment on an earlier post regarding the PQ’s economic platform, I thought readers might appreciate having a few resources on policy positions of Quebec’s three leading political parties: the PQ, the Liberals, and the CAQ.

One can find these parties full platforms at CBC News. (Side-note: to get the PQ’s platform in English, check out this Google-Translate page).

And for those wanting a quick primer, Reuters offers this crib sheet of these parties’ respective economic platforms.

Political Recap: PQ Leads, but CAQ Is on the Rise

The Gazette, a leading Montreal newspaper, offers an excellent report on the dynamics of the 2012 Quebec election. The PQ leads (with around 33%), but is unpopular, and is now shifting its attacks from its Liberal opponents (who have slipped to third place) to the CAQ. Both the Liberals and PQ are polling in the high 20s, but the Liberals are slipping, while the CAQ is on the assent.

The possibility of the CAQ winning a three-way race against the PQ and Liberals is itself a historic and significant development in Quebec politics. As the discussion below of the parties respective platforms will reveal, the CAQ has the opportunity to push a drastically more conservative approach to government spending and taxing in a province where a majority of the voters favor left or center-left on economic policies. Oh, the joys of modified parliamentary systems!

The Economic Politics of Quebec: Left (PQ) vs. the Center-Left (Libs) vs. the Conservative (CAQ) 

Now while I can’t comment on previous governing records in Quebec, the Reuters report allows a few conclusions to be drawn of these parties economic plans. 

1. Balancing the Budget:  All three parties are committed to balancing the province’s budget by 2013-14. 
2. Spending:  The PQ and Liberals favor government spending, but the Liberals’ spending plans are half of those of the PQ. 
3. Taxes:  All three parties are pushing tax increases, but the CAQ’s revenue plans only increase the estate taxes of second homes.  But guess what?  This revenue goes to paying for an income tax cut.

Conclusion

PQ is pushing (by to use American standards) and pretty liberal economic plan, Liberals are pushing what could be viewed as a center-left plan, with the CAQ’s plan that would probably find a lot in common with the Republican economic platform.

And on a final note, I find myself a touch envious that when Quebec voters go to the polls next week, they'll actually know--to a surprising degree of detail--what policies they're voting for.  The U.S. 2012 election, for all the focus on the role of government in the economy, has yet to see either major party lay out any real details on government spending. 

Quebec Election 2012: The (Inward Looking?) PQ Is Back, Liberals Fall, and the Center-Right CAQ Shows Its Staying Power

By Keith Edmund White

For American political junkies bored by the Democratic and Republican conventions, I would recommend tracking Quebec’s provincial election, taking place Sept. 4. Not only is the three-way race close, a center-right party is in striking distance of taking power in Quebec for the first time in modern history.

Admittedly, after four nights of debate, a poll has the Parti Quebecois (PQ)—a party supporting Quebec sovereignty and separation from Canada) in the lead, with 33% of the vote. And this might be the lead story, since 2007 saw support for the PQ implode, and give the party its first third-place finish in decades.

But most dramatic, to me, is the tie between the Liberal Party and the Coalition Avenir Quebec (CAQ)—a new party combining the former conservative Action Democratic Party and parts of the Parti Quebecois, standing at 27% and 28% respectively. Also, of note: the same poll found CAQ leader Francois Legault out-performed his rivals, the PQ’s Jean Pauline Marois and the Liberal’s Jean Charest.

Quebec has been governed by the Liberal Party for the last nine years, and either the Liberals or the PQ have held Quebec's parliament for the last forty years. (Side-note: anyone with a chance to visit Quebec City should really take a tour of the gorgeous parliament building and note the distinct lack of Canadian flags until you enter the near-by Parks Canada Fortifications of Quebec, a national historic site).

Most immediately, the PQ’s rise now has Quebec sovereignty issues grabbing headlines. First, the PQ has found itself twisting over its position on the timing of yet-another referendum on Quebec independence. The issue: whether only a petition of 15% of Quebec’s citizens would trigger a third referendum on independence, or if provincial parliamentary approval would be needed before a referendum took place. The significance: With only 30-40% of Quebec's citizens supporting independence, many voters see focusing on cultural or independence issues—instead of say, focusing on economic issues—not a thrilling prospect.

Second, the PQ is also facing criticism for some pro-sovereignty planks in its platforms. The PQ now wants a French language test for anyone running in provincial or municipal elections and a secularism charter that bans public servants from wearing of “conspicuous” religious symbols.

The National Post probes this inward lurch the PQ, interviewing critics and opponents of the PQ’s platform, gets at two conclusions: (1) demographic changes do show that Montreal may become minority French-speaking within two decades, a troubling development to Quebecers in favor of preserving the city’s French culture; (2) while easily characterized as intolerant, the moves do support PQ’s central goal of independence: (a) both proposals will likely be slapped down the Canadian Supreme Court, making it easy for the PQ to show Quebec doesn’t ‘fit’ into Canada’s federalism and (b) they are measures, if enacted, which could lead to next decade’s young voters pushing a independence reference over 50%.

But more interesting, to me, is the raise of the center-right CAQ. First, it is important to note, that in the 2007 provincial elections, its pre-merger Action Democratic Party finished second, taking advantage of an imploding PQ. But now, even in the face of a reinvigorated PQ party, the newly-minted CAQ is showing that center-rights politics in Quebec aren’t fading fast.

Sympathetic to Quebec’s French identity, the CAQ supports Quebec nationalism, but has promised a moratorium on independence for 10 years. In doing so, it has transformed the election from one between a left-leaning federalist party and left-leaning separatist party, but one that promises either a durable center-right opposition party, or even a possible center-right government in Quebec. In fact, the only thing that seems to be holding the CAQ from getting even more supports are doubts that the CAQ, like the PQ, will push for Quebec’s independence from Canada.

In short, this election matters. Will the PQ hang onto their lead, but then find its return to political power short-lived: with squabbling over a third referendum and court battles robbing it of public support? Will the Liberals hang on, stoking fears that a PQ and CAQ win will focus Quebec politics on independence and culture issues, at the expense of more pressing issues, like the economy and healthcare? Or will the CAQ quash doubts about its commitment to Canadian federalism, and break the left-leaning strangle hold on Quebec politics?